Robert moses water temp

Attracting wealth fast

2023.05.30 22:00 FennecsFox Attracting wealth fast

I'm in a bit of a negative situation with my SO. We have essentially not been in a functioning relationship since before lockdowns and I've decided to get out.
There is a house that is theoretically within my price bracket with an open viewing on Thursday.
I have savings equal to 60% of the asking price but because I am in a temp position and work part time (I'm a teacher in a very popular area so teacher jobs get 250+applicants) the bank won't give me a mortgage.(also. Not USA)
I have applied to several banks and taken on lottery tickets.
Is there anything I can do to attract the funds or give a banker a soft spot towards me before Thursday (as I know there will be a formal bidding session on Friday for this place)?
I really need to get out, but I'm not paying essentially twice the monthly cost of a mortgage to rent.
I know it's bad luck to cast for money, but I've done the coins in water one and burnt sooo many laurel leaves. Are there any other options available?
submitted by FennecsFox to witchcraft [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 21:54 punkbuddy89 how bad is it to seed too early, in late summer?

how bad is it to seed too early, in late summer?
I'm zone 6b, Kentucky, and Im going out of the country from Sep 27th to Oct 8th I typically would overseed mid to late September, but I wont be able to tend to the grass for the first few weeks this year. I dont have anyone who I can ask to water for me. And I dont have, or want to have, a timer set on my sprinkler incase something starts leaking while I'm away. My faucet is in my garage so I dont like to leave it on unless I'm there.

Would I be wasting time and money, to do my overseeding at the end of August, when soil temps are around 76F. Or would I be better off to wait until the 2nd week of October, to start? I skipped overseeding last year, in leu of a pre emergent application, with the anticipation of overseeding this fall.
submitted by punkbuddy89 to lawncare [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 21:51 Key_Basket6897 Spawn to Bulk moisture level? Beginner question.

I'm a little concerned that I may have squeezed too much water out of my coco coir, past it's "field capacity". Being my first-time growing mushrooms, I don't know if what I did was too much or is gonna be acceptable.
Are there indicators that would show that it's too dry? Should I see moisture on the inside of the tub? Should there be tons of tiny water drops all over the surface? (I've seen a pic of this as an example of perfect surface conditions, but in that pic the casing layer was also fully colonized).
I closed the tub about an hour ago and I'm not seeing any visible moisture. It's sitting in a 75f box and the outside room temp is 68-70 degrees f.
Should I give it a really light mist, or just hope there is enough moisture to last till ready to fruit?
I appreciate any help so much. Thanks.
submitted by Key_Basket6897 to unclebens [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 21:35 BurgersBaconFreedom Tip: lay down a thin layer of texture paint underneath to get the best effect with Dirty Down Moss

Tip: lay down a thin layer of texture paint underneath to get the best effect with Dirty Down Moss
Before and after of putting it directly onto the model vs covering those areas with a little Vallejo Dark Earth texture and then stippling on the DDM.
Some other tips for this paint since it's been the most difficult for me to master using out of this line:
DDM is best applied after vigorous shaking (literally 60+ seconds, that ball bearing should rattle freely). Then using a brush you're fine with ruining, stipple it on messy to the areas of texture paint. Spreading unevenly will lead to more variation when it dries for a more natural look.
Temperature has not been an issue. But it's also warm where I am and the ambient room temp is around 75F. In a cold room you may want to warm the bottle a bit more.
Be careful with water, it will cause the color to go moot green bright. (Your brush can be a little damp during application but I generally try to dry it by squeezing it through a paper towel)
The color of the surface below will only affect the dark/light of the moss. I find that medium tones present best. But if you want darker moss use blacks and lighter go white. Medium brown is my personal favorite.
This product also stains very easily so use with caution. I recommend a test area before committing to covering something.
It dries very fast so put the lid back on and rinse your brush every 30 seconds or so and repeat. I generally pull the paint from the lid itself.
submitted by BurgersBaconFreedom to minipainting [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 21:32 Plus_Drag_2446 Which is the best CPU water block for i9-13900k?

I've been looking all over the place and haven't really been able to find a proper source that would show me a good water block for the i9-13900k. Currently, I have the Corsair Hydro X Series XC7 but that is clearly not cutting it as I get pretty high temps very quickly when the computer is under load. In my research, the best I've found was direct die cooling but I don't really feel like I would be okay with the risks involved with it/trust myself to do it well.
Any good recs would be much appreciated.
submitted by Plus_Drag_2446 to watercooling [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 21:14 Vroomvroom103 Water Chiller Broke While I Was Away

Okay, so I come back to a broken chiller (fixed it don’t worry) but my dude has had 1-4 days of temps with the water temp in the upper 70’s. He didn’t exhibit any weird behaviors and no curved gills. He still eats and seems okay.
Should I expect him to be sick? What should I look out for? He seems okay I’m just super concerned
submitted by Vroomvroom103 to axolotls [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 20:49 pineapple1347 Please help, all my plants die.

I've killed everything from anubias to java fern to alternanthera reineckii.
Ammonia 0, nitrites 0, nitrates always between 20 and 40. Temp 80 degrees. 40 gallon "tall" tank, 30 in x 12 in x 20 in. Substrate is CaribSea Eco-Complete planted aquarium substrate. Fluval aquasky for the light. I also have an airstone. My water is very hard and the pH is about 8.0-8.2. No amount of dosing API pH down seems to change this.
I got most of my plants from Dustin's Fish Tanks. I use their fertilizer "growth juice" (Nitrogen 0.10, Phosphate 0.05, Potassium 0.14, Calcium 0.06, Magnesium 0.02, Sulfur 0.03, Iron 0.012, Manganese 0.005, Molybdenum 0.00002) alternating with additional iron (per their suggestion).
I do have fish, and a snail, and they're fine.
I'm at the end of my rope, so sick of spending so much money on plants for them to wither away. My tank is so ugly I hate looking at it and being reminded of all my failures and all the money I've basically lit on fire (or, more accurately, dumped in water). Please help me!!! I just want a beautiful tank. I had dreams of having red plants but right now I'd settle for anything that stays alive and green or shows the slightest bit of growth - which I have never once seen in this tank.
I'm also in the market for a lot of big aquarium rocks so if anyone has any suggestions where I can get some (preferably very tall) aquarium rocks I'd appreciate that too.
submitted by pineapple1347 to PlantedTank [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 20:41 ShootNaka Trouble seeding new build garden

Trouble seeding new build garden
Recently moved into a new build and attempted to seed our lawn. Took really well in some areas but bald patches in other parts where the soil has turned hard and dry.
Been watering twice daily, morning and evening but ground quickly returns to the picture. Not helped with dry weather and hot temps.
Is my second-seeding destined to fail because of the soil? And what’s the best way to tackle it?
Frustrating mix of lush green grass and concrete at the moment!
submitted by ShootNaka to GardeningUK [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 20:08 Hulkstrong23 [Technique] Looking for thoughts on the metabolites here

[Technique] Looking for thoughts on the metabolites here
This is my first time trying shoebox . These are PE's. They place I ordered my kit from said to float this shoebox in the other tub they sent. I mention this because the metabolites stop at the level the water was at. It's also in my Martha tent with my other gourmet mushrooms. There's no weird smell and, unless I'm mistaken, the mycelium looks healthy (last picture). I fan it once a day but don't mist since the humidity looks like it's where it should be.
I'm hoping it's not a lost cause and I can save it. What I'm thinking is to turn the lid upside down, stop fanning, and stop floating it and use the martha tent to just keep the temp where it needs to be.
Any opinions on if it's still salvageable? Or any other tips to get it where it needs to be are greatly appreciated! Thanks in advance!
submitted by Hulkstrong23 to MushroomGrowers [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 19:55 growstrongplants Using combination of ESP8266 and RasberryPi my Chronograf dashboard is almost finished. Just need to add power monitoring like current voltage, kWh & total power cost. No HomeAssistant or MQTT needed.

submitted by growstrongplants to cannabiscultivation [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 19:52 RogueAlmonds1 Weird nozzle drags on top and bottom off center?

Weird nozzle drags on top and bottom off center?
Hello, new to printing. This is the biggest print I've attempted. First time I've gotten it to print all the way but when I pulled it off the printer I noticed these weird circles on the top and it looks like the nozzle was dragging through the top. The middle layers look great. But then I flip it over and noticed that the first few layers on the belly and feet are off from the rest of the print. Not sure what's going on. Printed 2 smaller successful prints before this. Cleaned with soap and warm water and re-leveled the bed after cleaning. Any help is appreciated!
Ender 3 Pro Amazon PLA 210/60 first layer temp 205/60 rest of print temp In an enclosure Direct drive 3 perimeters .2mm layers 15% infill, support cubic(I think) Did enable ironing but thought that would help make it smoother Supports were generated by the creator of the stl
submitted by RogueAlmonds1 to FixMyPrint [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 19:17 FurryTracker Miners only Transferring Goods!?

I have a couple deep gold mines that I've been eager to get to tier 4 for. But now that I have them, they're fully staffed and only mining 20 ore per year. What gives?
I have material storage, two wagons, two temp homes, water, a foragehuntesmokehouse/root cellar, roads and foundry all in the same area. Plus I built shelters enough to house all of the workers.
Right now it is showing that I have 0% working, and 90% transferring goods. Anyone have any idea why my productivity is so low??
submitted by FurryTracker to FarthestFrontier [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 19:16 IRunOverCyclist New cpu running hot

Had this pc for about 3 years now, thought it was time for an upgrade. Before I had a r5 2600 and I upgraded to an r7 5800x. It’s the same cooler(water cooled) as I had on the old cpu and is mounted correctly. My idle temps are jumping from 50 degrees all the way up to 75 degrees. I reapplied thermal paste as well.
submitted by IRunOverCyclist to pcmasterrace [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 19:15 realdrewvigne Smith Peak Trail Report

I just hiked the Smith Peak trail beginning on 5/27 until 5/29.
Day 1 - 15mi distance, 5600ft elevation gain The first 7 miles of the Smith Peak trail, up until Smith Peak itself, was well marked. Smith Meadows was swampy, requiring a bit of finesse to dodge the muddy water. After the meadows we entered a forest that was obviously burned years ago. We followed a stream with plenty of fresh water that we could drink. We entered another swampy region right before approaching Smith Peak itself.
After Smith Peak, the trail continuing to Harden Lake becomes overgrown, wet, and almost invisible going uphill. The brush and the perspective of looking from low to high ground made it almost impossible to see any signs of trail without GPS. From miles 7-15, we were entirely off-trail, basically cross-country hiking. It was a grind.
The grind only got more sufferable - once we got to the 7000ft mark, snow became an issue*. Around 7500ft, the snow was 4-7ft deep. The snow was hard packed and icy so was traversable with regular shoes, but I would recommend snow shoes. Crampons wouldn't help much but would be better than nothing.
We could not quite make it to Harden Lake. The snow was too heavy and we could not keep a fast enough pace to make it before sundown. We found a patch of flat, dry ground surrounded by a wall of snow and made camp. I was getting worried. Temps were dropping, my shoes were wet, and all I could see around me was snow. I scrapped together some damp wood and managed to make a fire. At this point I knew we would be fine.
Day 2 - 8mi distance, 300ft elevation gain I woke up to a great view of Rancheria Falls across the valley. Made some coffee and we were on our way. We decided to head the way back that we came, but would break it up into 2 days. We first had to get up a 300ft climb of snow. We had to be careful in some parts because the snow melt creates hollow sections under what looks like 7ft of snow. Step in the wrong place and you can fall through.
The trail was way easier to spot heading downhill. We made great time back to Smith Peak. Took maybe 4 hours. The trails, even though easier to spot, were very overgrown.
We stopped a half mile before Smith Peak. You'll know you're in the right place if you see a patch of flat dry ground with no trees and a creek alongside it. Some fallen trees on the perimeter made for perfect firewood. I made a fire ring there with some granite. The perfect campsite as far as I'm concerned.
Day 3 - 7mi distance, 0ft elevation gain From our camp site, it was all downhill from here. Getting back to the dam only took us 3 hours. I saw more people on this day than I saw the first 2 days combined. In fact, I had only seen 2 people near Smith Peak the days before. I don't think anyone besides me and my partner went beyond Smith Peak. It's treacherous and cross-country in the wilderness beyond.

*I've heard reports that the snow line is 6500ft. Based on my experience, it is more like 7000ft now.
submitted by realdrewvigne to Yosemite [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 18:50 obeliskposture Have any of the resident radfems read Engels' "Origins of the Family, Private Property, and the State"?

It's well worth a read, though I'm not sure exactly how well the late nineteenth-century anthropology holds up today. (Maybe somebody more knowledgeable than me can weigh in.)
The long and short of it: Engels examines how the structure of the family in a given society is contingent upon it economic and technological conditions, considered in terms of linear stages of development from "savagery" to "civilization." Group marriage, elective pair bonds, and matrilineality are typical of "primitive" societies, while ones that develop large-scale agriculture and specialized crafts tend towards patrilineality, driven by concerns over property rights:
We now leave America, the classic soil of the pairing family. No sign allows us to conclude that a higher form of family developed here, or that there was ever permanent monogamy anywhere in America prior to its discovery and conquest. But not so in the Old World.
Here the domestication of animals and the breeding of herds had developed a hitherto unsuspected source of wealth and created entirely new social relations. Up to the lower stage of barbarism, permanent wealth had consisted almost solely of house, clothing, crude ornaments and the tools for obtaining and preparing food – boat, weapons, and domestic utensils of the simplest kind. Food had to be won afresh day by day. Now, with their herds of horses, camels, asses, cattle, sheep, goats, and pigs, the advancing pastoral peoples—the Semites on the Euphrates and the Tigris, and the Aryans in the Indian country of the Five Streams (Punjab), in the Ganges region, and in the steppes then much more abundantly watered of the Oxus and the Jaxartes—had acquired property which only needed supervision and the rudest care to reproduce itself in steadily increasing quantities and to supply the most abundant food in the form of milk and meat. All former means of procuring food now receded into the background; hunting, formerly a necessity, now became a luxury.
But to whom did this new wealth belong? Originally to the gens, without a doubt. Private property in herds must have already started at an early period, however. It is difficult to say whether the author of the so-called first book of Moses regarded the patriarch Abraham as the owner of his herds in his own right as head of a family community or by right of his position as actual hereditary head of a gens. What is certain is that we must not think of him as a property owner in the modern sense of the word. And it is also certain that at the threshold of authentic history we already find the herds everywhere separately owned by heads of families, as are the artistic products of barbarism—metal implements, luxury articles and, finally, the human cattle—the slaves.
For now slavery had also been invented. To the barbarian of the lower stage, a slave was valueless. Hence the treatment of defeated enemies by the American Indians was quite different from that at a higher stage. The men were killed or adopted as brothers into the tribe of the victors; the women were taken as wives or otherwise adopted with their surviving children. At this stage human labor-power still does not produce any considerable surplus over and above its maintenance costs. That was no longer the case after the introduction of cattle-breeding, metalworking, weaving and, lastly, agriculture. just as the wives whom it had formerly been so easy to obtain had now acquired an exchange value and were bought, so also with the forces of labor, particularly since the herds had definitely become family possessions. The family did not multiply so rapidly as the cattle. More people were needed to look after them; for this purpose use could be made of the enemies captured in war, who could also be bred just as easily as the cattle themselves.
Once it had passed into the private possession of families and there rapidly begun to augment, this wealth dealt a severe blow to the society founded on pairing marriage and the matriarchal gens. Pairing marriage had brought a new element into the family. By the side of the natural mother of the child it placed its natural and attested father, with a better warrant of paternity, probably, than that of many a “father” today. According to the division of labor within the family at that time, it was the man’s part to obtain food and the instruments of labor necessary for the purpose. He therefore also owned the instruments of labor, and in the event of husband and wife separating, he took them with him, just as she retained her household goods. Therefore, according to the social custom of the time, the man was also the owner of the new source of subsistence, the cattle, and later of the new instruments of labor, the slaves. But according to the custom of the same society, his children could not inherit from him. For as regards inheritance, the position was as follows:
At first, according to mother-right—so long, therefore, as descent was reckoned only in the female line—and according to the original custom of inheritance within the gens, the gentile relatives inherited from a deceased fellow member of their gens. His property had to remain within the gens. His effects being insignificant, they probably always passed in practice to his nearest gentile relations—that is, to his blood relations on the mother's side. The children of the dead man, however, did not belong to his gens, but to that of their mother; it was from her that they inherited, at first conjointly with her other blood relations, later perhaps with rights of priority; they could not inherit from their father, because they did not belong to his gens, within which his property had to remain. When the owner of the herds died, therefore, his herds would go first to his brothers and sisters and to his sister’s children, or to the issue of his mother’s sisters. But his own children were disinherited.
Thus, on the one hand, in proportion as wealth increased, it made the man’s position in the family more important than the woman’s, and on the other hand created an impulse to exploit this strengthened position in order to overthrow, in favor of his children, the traditional order of inheritance. This, however, was impossible so long as descent was reckoned according to mother-right. Mother-right, therefore, had to be overthrown, and overthrown it was. This was by no means so difficult as it looks to us today. For this revolution—one of the most decisive ever experienced by humanity—could take place without disturbing a single one of the living members of a gens. All could remain as they were. A simple decree sufficed that in the future the offspring of the male members should remain within the gens, but that of the female should be excluded by being transferred to the gens of their father. The reckoning of descent in the female line and the matriarchal law of inheritance were thereby overthrown, and the male line of descent and the paternal law of inheritance were substituted for them. As to how and when this revolution took place among civilized peoples, we have no knowledge. It falls entirely within prehistoric times. But that it did take place is more than sufficiently proved by the abundant traces of mother-right which have been collected, particularly by Bachofen. How easily it is accomplished can be seen in a whole series of American Indian tribes, where it has only recently taken place and is still taking place under the influence, partly of increasing wealth and a changed mode of life (transference from forest to prairie), and partly of the moral pressure of civilization and missionaries. Of eight Missouri tribes, six observe the male line of descent and inheritance, two still observe the female. Among the Shawnees, Miamis and Delawares the custom has grown up of giving the children a gentile name of their father's gens in order to transfer them into it, thus enabling them to inherit from him. (...)
The overthrow of mother-right was the world historical defeat of the female sex. The man took command in the home also; the woman was degraded and reduced to servitude, she became the slave of his lust and a mere instrument for the production of children. This degraded position of the woman, especially conspicuous among the Greeks of the heroic and still more of the classical age, has gradually been palliated and glozed over, and sometimes clothed in a milder form; in no sense has it been abolished.
The short version of the conclusion: if the tangling up of property relations, economic brass tacks, reproduction, and romantic/sexual love has warped relations between the sexes, then the passage from capitalism into socialism and communism will allow men and women to stand on more equal footing. There's no point in smashing any patriarchy because there's no patriarchy to smash: just a period of historical development that needs to be brought to its conclusion and sublated by the next phase.
In any case, therefore, the position of men will be very much altered. But the position of women, of all women, also undergoes significant change. With the transfer of the means of production into common ownership, the single family ceases to be the economic unit of society. Private housekeeping is transformed into a social industry. The care and education of the children becomes a public affair; society looks after all children alike, whether they are legitimate or not. This removes all the anxiety about the “consequences,” which today is the most essential social—moral as well as economic—factor that prevents a girl from giving herself completely to the man she loves. Will not that suffice to bring about the gradual growth of unconstrained sexual intercourse and with it a more tolerant public opinion in regard to a maiden’s honor and a woman’s shame? And, finally, have we not seen that in the modern world monogamy and prostitution are indeed contradictions, but inseparable contradictions, poles of the same state of society? Can prostitution disappear without dragging monogamy with it into the abyss?
Again, short answer: yes. Engels maintains that the revolution won't deliver us all unto polyamory, but to happy and uncoerced monogamy:
Full freedom of marriage can therefore only be generally established when the abolition of capitalist production and of the property relations created by it has removed all the accompanying economic considerations which still exert such a powerful influence on the choice of a marriage partner. For then there is no other motive left except mutual inclination.
I wonder.
Been reading this lately. Thought I'd share some bits as conversation starters—and as a rebuff to the latest episode of "nobody duz Marxism no more."
submitted by obeliskposture to stupidpol [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 18:48 Sahaab White ring of death help

I've had 2 shrimps dead out of 11 in the past 2 weeks, both white ring of death. Both times, I've also seen normal shrimp molt lying around the same day of the death or next day (1st shrimp, saw molt next day, 2nd shrimp saw a molt ssme day), so some other shrimps are nolting for sure.
They are not reproducing currently, have had them for about 2 months now.
Parameters : ammonia 0, nitrite 0, nitrate 25, gh 75 mg/l, kh 80mg/l, 6.8 ph, temp 78 F ; i haven't had any param fluctuations for atleast a month. And do a 20% water change once a week. (nitrates may seem high for some, but lowering nitrates, my plants dont grow, hence i dose extra nilocg thriveC to increase nitrates and now they are thriving, been doing this for well a week after i got the shrimps)
My gh is on the low side, so I try supplementing them different foods high in calcium, e.g., I've tried broccoli, cucumbers, lettuce, kale. But the shrimps are uninterested and I've had to pull them out after 6 hours without them being touched. Today i boiled and baked some egg shells and put 1 whole egg shell into the tank (according to an advice on another comment somewhere on this subreddit for 1 eggshell per 10gallon)
Tank : 25g, with shrimps, snails, guppies, mollies and cardinal tetras
Plants have been thriving since I've increased nitrates and also dosing fertilizer more since 2 months now.
I have had only 1 berried female, who dropped eggs the same day she got berried.
Is there anything more i could try to prevent the white ROD? nilocg doesnt add mg and ca, but egg shells should contain small amounts of magnesium as well.
Both the deaths have been approximately 6-7 days after a water change, approx a day before or on the day of water change day, so i dont think water changes are a cause.
submitted by Sahaab to shrimptank [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 18:27 marriediguanasgrow Having a hard time figuring out what this darkness is on my leafs. I know for a fact i should have transplanted a while ago the back 2 bigger plants were transplanted 2 days ago and im transplanting this one today.I had a couple days where the temps were 70 in here and missed some waterings.was busy

Having a hard time figuring out what this darkness is on my leafs. I know for a fact i should have transplanted a while ago the back 2 bigger plants were transplanted 2 days ago and im transplanting this one today.I had a couple days where the temps were 70 in here and missed some waterings.was busy submitted by marriediguanasgrow to NoTillGrowery [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 18:06 TheCRab22 Results 17 lb SRF Brisket

Results 17 lb SRF Brisket
I was gifted a 17 lb Snake River farm wagyu brisket. This was my third brisket ever. These photos are the results. This was cooked on a Smokey Weber mountain. No water in the pan.
I started at 8am at 250 degrees for 6h 45m. Wrapped in foil after the bark set and increased temp to 275 degree. 11h 45m cook time, one hour rest. I used the peanut butte skewer test to test doneness when temp hit 195. 75% of the brisket felt very good while 25% felt like it needed more time. I pulled at that because I was worried that I would overcook the 75%. It turns out I needed 30mins- 1hr more to get the perfect competition texture (the pull test).
Flavor was 100% solid. I used slap yo daddy's championship beef rub. I had the rub on overnight. I did not spritz. No smoke ring.
submitted by TheCRab22 to BBQ [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 18:05 Paranoid_panda0_0 Aio coolers

I thinking about getting an AIO cooler instead of the aircooler that i had for years it was fine However the reason that i wanna do the switch to AIO Instead of the big air cooler Is the fact that the gpu & my gen 4 m.2 generates lots of heat That heat gets into the cpu cooler increasing its temps Because the m.2 is directly beneath the gpu And since heat rises it get sucked with whats above (the cpu) Should i be concerned or make the switch for ease of mind Or just ignore it ?
Also I'm worried about the longevity of the pump and water leakage For reference I'm thinking about the nzxt x63 280mm
submitted by Paranoid_panda0_0 to pcmasterrace [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 17:59 Mortyga Ryam Redwyne, Lord of the Arbor

Discord Username: Mathus
Character Name and House: Ryam Redwyne
Age: 23
Appearance: Ryam
Gift: Duelist
Skills: Polearms (M), Knightly, Defender
Talent(s): Dancing, Hunting, Swimming
Starting Title(s): Lord of the Arbor
Starting Location: The Feast
Family Tree: Redwyne Echo
Alternate Characters:
Auxiliary Character:
Character Name and House: Samantha Redwyne
Age: 21
Appearance: Scarlet Sam
Gift: Thrifty
Skills: Sailing (E), Archery
Talent(s): Hawking, Cyvasse, Painting
Starting Title(s): None
Starting Location: The Feast

Ryam Redwyne

Ryam Redwyne was born in the year 184 AC to Ser Robert Redwyne, heir to the Arbor, and his wife, the Lady Denyse Hightower, together with his twin sister, Emma. From a young age, Ryam was exposed to the high culture of the Arbor, cultivated by the Redwynes since time immemorial. He danced at the opulent balls of Ryamsport, partook in the grape-treading festivals in the fertile fields outside Vinetown, and learned how to ride in the rolling hills and sunny valleys of the island’s interior.
As the future heir to House Redwyne, Ryam's upbringing was marked by rigorous training and education. He was tutored in the arts of diplomacy, statecraft, and the naval traditions that had made House Redwyne renowned. Despite struggling with his letters, counting numbers came easier to the young lad, but like his namesake predecessor, it was in the practice yard that Ryam truly flourished.
In 191 AC, Ryam was sent to serve Lord Osgrey as his page. Not long after arriving at Coldmoat, news reached him that his grandsire was dead and that his father ruled as Lord.
For the next nine years, Ryam remained at Coldmoat, becoming a squire at 9, and occasionally visiting his home and other courts for feasts and tourneys. Blessed with natural agility and a keen mind, he quickly proved himself a formidable swordsman, and an able horseman, too, winning a squire’s tourney in Lannisport in 198 AC, for which he was given a Dornish sand steed - taken during the Red War - as prize. For years after, young Ryam would correspond with Theodora Lannister by raven letter.
Those squire days were easy, and Ryam spent many a day exploring the lands of the Chequy Lion, swimming in Leafy Lake and hunting in Wat's Wood with his master's men. As he got older, he partook in drink and festivities, frequently visiting the villages of Dosk and Brandybottom, sometimes in the company of Alayne Osgrey, heir to Coldmoat.
Having proven his valor, Ryam earned his spurs upon coming of age, returning to the Arbor a man knighted and - unbeknownst to him at the time - father to a naturalborn son by Alayne. Not five years later, he’d be lord.
The minstrels of Ryamsport still sing about the rumored love between Osgrey and Redwyne, but some trill another tune, that it was the sea that won Ryam’s heart first.
Displaying an innate talent for sailing, and swimming like a fish in the sea, some whispered that he’d been fathered by the Merling King himself. The young man took to rigging a sail or commanding a crew as easily as he did walking or talking during one of his many outings around his father’s islands. Indeed, when news reached his lord father of how Ryam had navigated the treacherous rocks off the coast of the Bastard’s Cradle, the man was reportedly delighted, but not before admonishing the lad for his tomfoolery.
In 203 AC, tragedy struck House Redwyne when Lord Robert passed unexpectedly. Winter rarely touched the Arbor, but this time, northern winds brought snow to the island, and Robert succumbed not soon after to a chill, though some attribute his death to his estrangement to his daughter Talla, who had eloped with Jorgen Lowther two moons prior. The loss deeply affected young Redwyne, however, but the responsibility of ruling the Arbor and her people now fell upon him, leaving no time for grief.
Under Ryam's leadership, House Redwyne persevered through the winter, and as spring embraces the realm, he looks beyond his island with renewed determination. Sea Wolves of the Iron Islands harry the Mander once more, but weak and desperate after fleeing their plague-ravaged rocks, they are a nuisance to be crushed in the realisation of Ryam’s true goals. With peace restored to the House of the Dragon, he seeks to expand trade with ports closed off by the wars. By sword and sail, word and wine, he will prove Redwyne’s worth.

Samantha Redwyne

Samantha Redwyne, was born in the year 186 AC, the fourth child of Lord Robert Redwyne and Lady Denyse Redwyne. Her birth brought much needed joy and respite to the Arbor, for both father and grandsire had departed with the Redwyne Fleet three moons prior to fight in Maelor’s Red War. as her fiery spirit and vibrant personality quickly made her a beloved member of the family.
Like her older sister Talla, Samantha displayed a fiery spirit already in the crib, a temper which would only increase as she got older, which paired with her vibrant red hair earned her the nickname “Scarlet Sam”. During her early years, Samantha enjoyed a carefree childhood on the Arbor, and would often explore the estate, endlessly wandering through the gardens and vineyards, immersing herself in the sights and scents of her opulent home. It was during these explorations that she developed a deep appreciation for the natural world and a keen eye for beauty.
As Samantha grew older, she developed a passion for art, spending hours sketching and painting the landscapes and seascapes that surrounded her home. Her artistic talent blossomed, and she found solace and expression in capturing the essence of the world around her on canvas. Music was another fascination of hers, with the Arbor’s many balls, festivals, and celebrations beckoning the finest minstrels and troupes to the island like moths to a flame. She would often be found listening to the harp or septa’s choir, singing along with the hymns.
Because of her willfulness, or perhaps in spite of it, Sam drew girls and boys alike to her, making friends like a baker did bread every morning, and a few enemies, too. These friends became her confidantes, accompanying her on expeditions to secret hideouts in the vineyards or embarking on imaginative quests through the halls of ruined holdfasts.
Growing into her teenage years, Samantha’s escapades intensified, having developed a love for archery and horsemanship alike, terrorising the countryside with her bold displays. More than once did her father’s men bring her back to Ryamsport after spending great effort catching up to her, but no matter how many times her father threatened to send her to the Motherhouse in Oldtown, Samantha always managed to talk her way out of punishment.
Indeed, her father went so far as to send Samantha to her uncle in King’s Landing, but the girl flourished there, befriending the bastards of Driftmark, Daena and Aelinor Waters. Often going on escapades, sneaking away with wines stolen from her uncle’s cellar, Scarlet Sam showed no intention of changing her ways, though the city, more than once, taught her something of the dangers of a woman in the world.
Still, she remains fiery to this day, though the embers have smouldered over the years. Now, Samantha Redwyne is a woman of remarkable courtesy and wit, and having tasted the ripe fruits of her home, she yearns to sample the rest of the world. To travel by ship and steed, with the wind in her hair, is all she dreams about. But Westeros is large, a mercurial leviathan to the Arbor, and fraught with surprises ill and well, sure to surprise this daughter of Summer.


  • 184 AC: Ryam and Emma Redwyne are born
  • 186 AC: Samantha Redwyne is born on the Isle of Pigs while her parents are visiting Lord Farrow in his hall.
  • 191 AC: Ryam is sent to ward with the Osgreys of Coldmoat as their page. Two moons later, his grandsire, Lord Bertrand Redwyne, dies. His father, Robert, succeeds him as lord.
  • 193 AC: Ryam becomes a squire
  • 198 AC: Ryam wins a squire's tourney held in Lannisport
  • 200 AC: Before the court of Coldmoat, Ryam is knighted, and returns to the Arbor. Later that year, Samantha is sent to King's Landing to stay with her uncle Rickard and his children.
  • 203 AC: His father, Lord Robert Redwyne, passes in the winter. Ryam becomes lord.

Family Tree

House Redwyne family echo


Ser Rickard Redwyne
Uncle of Lord Ryam Redwyne, Ser Rickard serves in King's Landing as the Royal Shipwright.
Skill: Shipwright
Ser Robar 'Xhobar' Redwyne
The son of Rickard Redwyne and Talaya Qo, a princess of the Summer Islands, Ser Robar serves in the City Watch of King's Landing as captain of the River Gate.
Skill: Defender
submitted by Mortyga to FieldOfFire [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 17:53 SchrodingersSmilodon (Spoilers Extended) A unified theory of the Others, the Long Night, the Horn of Winter, and Bloodraven, Part 4

This is the third in a series of posts, in which I present a theory on the history of the Others. You can read part one here, part two here, and part three here.
My previous posts came with a disclaimer, which I'm going to copy-paste below:
In a certain sense, I am both a new and an old fan of ASOIAF. I read the books about ten years ago, enjoyed them, and then barely thought about them ever again after putting them down. Then, HotD got me interested in the series again, and I ended up going down the rabbit hole of fan theories, speculation about future books, details that I missed on my first reading, etc., which has been a lot of fun! But I’ve only read the series once, and it was ten years ago, so a lot of my memories are pretty fuzzy. Honestly, a lot of my knowledge comes from the wiki (although I have gone back and reread certain important chapters). All of this is to say, I am not the most knowledgeable person to be coming up with fan theories, and the fact that I’m posting this at all probably indicates a certain amount of Dunning-Kruger effect. Take everything I say here with a grain of salt, and please let me know if there’s something obvious that my ignorance has caused me to miss. Other than that, let me know what you think!
But I also need to include another disclaimer: I came up with this theory before I became aware of the idea that Bloodraven wasn't the three-eyed crow, and, as such, this theory assumes that Bloodraven is the three-eyed crow. To be honest, I'm becoming increasingly sympathetic to the idea that Bloodraven isn't the 3EC, but I'm still undecided. If Bloodraven isn't the 3EC, that will poke a few holes in this theory, but I ultimately think it wouldn't be too big of a problem. After all, the 3EC led Bran to Bloodraven, so they must share at least some goals. So, I ask that you assume for the purposes of this post that Bloodraven is the 3EC, with the understanding that, if it turns out that Bloodraven isn't the 3EC, this theory will need some minor amending. I've already been thinking about theories on that topic, so, if and when I finish such a theory, I'll post it and discuss how it modifies this theory. But that's getting ahead of ourselves. For now…

Part 4: Bloodraven

Making First Men horny

One of the most powerful pieces of magic we're told of in ASOIAF is the Hammer of the Waters. This is a spell that causes powerful earthquakes, capable of radically reshaping the geography where it's used. The Children of the Forest are said to have used the Hammer of the Waters on at least two occasions: once to flood the Neck, and once to break the Arm of Dorne. I argued in my previous post that the Horn of Winter contains the same magic as the Hammer of the Waters, and that when Joramun blew the Horn of Winter the resulting earthquake destroyed the western section of the Wall and created the Gorge. However, while the Horn of Winter replicates the magic of the Hammer of the Waters, that doesn't mean the Horn of Winter was the original Hammer of the Waters; that is to say, I don't think that the Horn of Winter was used to flood the Neck or break the Arm of Dorne. There are a few reasons why the Horn probably wasn't responsible for these historical events:
  1. The Horn of Winter is probably the same horn that's currently in Sam's possession (link to a series of posts that analyzes the Horn of Winter and lays out this argument), and that horn is banded in bronze. The CotF didn't work with bronze.
  2. TWOIAF described how the CotF brought about the Hammer of the Waters, and it had nothing to do with sounding a horn. Supposedly, it was your standard blood sacrifice deal: kill a bunch of people, and in exchange a powerful magical effect will occur. While the Horn of Winter might kill the person who blew it (in the same way Dragonbinder does), we have no reason to believe it requires a mass sacrifice.
  3. Creating the Gorge, while no mean feat, is much less impressive than breaking the Arm of Dorne or flooding the Neck. The Horn of Winter appears to be a weaker version of the Hammer of the Waters.
So it looks like, compared to the original Hammer of the Waters, the Horn of Winter represents a tradeoff of power for convenience: the resulting earthquake isn't as strong, but you can create an earthquake without performing a massive blood sacrifice. But I want to focus on the fact that the Horn of Winter is banded in bronze. The CotF don't use bronze, but you know who do? The First Men. The Horn of Winter contains the magic of the CotF, but its physical structure could only have been made by the First Men. This suggests that the First Men (or some faction thereof) and the CotF (or some faction thereof) collaborated to create the Horn of Winter.
I suspect that that First Men faction was none other than the Stark Kings of Winter; this would explain why it's called the Horn of Winter in the first place. Regardless of which group of First Men was responsible, however, it's easy to see why they did it: the Horn of Winter is a powerful weapon, and any faction of First Men would have been happy to have such a weapon in their possession. So the interesting question isn't, "Why did the First Men work with the CotF to create the Horn of Winter?" The interesting question is, "Why did the CotF work with the First Men to create the Horn of Winter?" Why would the CotF give the First Men a weapon capable of destroying the Wall?
Let's take a step back and recall the role that the CotF played in the events leading up to the construction of the Wall. Their lands were invaded by the First Men, and I argued in my first post that they responded by creating the Others as a race of slave soldiers to fight the First Men. After the Pact ended the war between the CotF and the First Men, the CotF kept the Others enslaved and/or hunted down the free ones in the Lands of Always Winter. Then the Long Night came, and I argued in my second post that the Others took advantage of it by attacking the First Men, killing them en masse in order to grow their power, with the ultimate goal of attacking the CotF. Eventually, the CotF participated in the peace agreement that ended the Long Night. But it's worth remembering that the CotF only interceded in the conflict between humans and Others at the urging of the Last Hero:
"Now these were the days before the Andals came, and long before the women fled across the narrow sea from the cities of the Rhoyne, and the hundred kingdoms of those times were the kingdoms of the First Men, who had taken these lands from the children of the forest. Yet here and there in the fastness of the woods the children still lived in their wooden cities and hollow hills, and the faces in the trees kept watch. So as cold and death filled the earth, the last hero determined to seek out the children, in the hopes that their ancient magics could win back what the armies of men had lost." (AGOT, Bran IV)
Prior to the Last Hero, the CotF seem to have been content to sit back and watch the humans and the Others kill each other—which, considering the history of those three species, is understandable. (According to Sam, the CotF did at one point give obsidian daggers to the Night's Watch, so the CotF did get involved in the conflict between the humans and the Others eventually, but this probably didn't happen until after the Last Hero made contact with them. Old Nan says that the Last Hero had to go on a quest of some difficulty to make contact with the CotF; presumably, this wouldn't have been necessary if the CotF were already giving obsidian daggers to the Night's Watch, because then the Last Hero could have just gone to the Night's Watch and gotten in contact with the CotF that way. So, for most if not all of the Long Night, the CotF did not provide humans with obsidian weapons, meaning that they truly were uninvolved in the conflict between the two species.) I argued in my second post that the peace agreement between the First Men and the Others was an essential part of ending the Long Night, and that this was facilitated by the Last Hero/Azor Ahai. The CotF's absence in the conflict between the humans and the Others prior to the Last Hero's involvement suggests that the CotF had no desire to see the humans and the Others make peace. They only facilitated a peace agreement because it was necessary in order to end the Long Night. The Long Night was an existential threat to the CotF, both because the forests can't survive in an eternal night and because the Others might eventually become powerful enough to threaten the CotF. So the CotF needed to end the Long Night, and ending the Long Night necessitated a peace agreement between humans and Others. It's very easy to imagine that the Last Hero's pitch to the CotF went something like, "Look, I know there's no love lost between you and humanity, and certainly none between you and the Others. But the Long Night isn't going to end unless all three species work together, and the Long Night will kill you guys, just as it will kill humanity. For your own sake, work with us to end this." Clearly, this argument was persuasive. But, once the Long Night ended, the CotF no longer had any reason to care about peace between the humans and the Others—a peace that only existed thanks to the Wall, which was partially destroyed by the Horn of Winter, which the CotF helped to create. The logical conclusion is that the CotF made the Horn of Winter in order to destroy the Wall and renew the war between the humans and the Others. The CotF weren't unconcerned observers to the human-Other war; they actively wanted the two species to fight.
You may be wondering, why didn't the CotF just destroy the Wall using the Hammer of the Waters? The problem with doing that is that the Hammer of the Waters is distinctly CotF magic, so destroying the Wall with the Hammer of the Waters would have pointed right back to the CotF. The humans and the Others would have known that the CotF were trying to provoke them back into war, and they would have naturally resisted those efforts. The way around this is to give humans access to the same magic as the Hammer of the Waters. That way, when the humans use that magic near the Wall, it will be the humans who are responsible for destroying the Wall. Helping the First Men create the Horn of Winter was therefore a way for the CotF to end the peace between humanity and the Others, all while maintaining plausible deniability. And it kind of worked; the Horn of Winter did destroy the western part of the Wall. But this didn't result in the human-Other war that the CotF wanted, because, as I argued in my previous post, the Others' queen was taken captive at the same time as the destruction of the Wall, and she's been used as a hostage to keep the peace ever since.

Child psychology

I've argued that the CotF wanted the humans and Others to fight, but I haven't explained why they'd want that. The easy answer is that the CotF have grievances with both the humans and the Others, so they wanted bloodshed between the two. But we shouldn't accept that easy answer too readily. If we're going to understand what the CotF want, we're going to have to get inside their heads. The books tell us about at least one way in which CotF psychology differs from human psychology:
"That was in the dawn of days, when our sun was rising. Now it sinks, and this is our long dwindling. The giants are almost gone as well, they who were our bane and our brothers. The great lions of the western hills have been slain, the unicorns are all but gone, the mammoths down to a few hundred. The direwolves will outlast us all, but their time will come as well. In the world that men have made, there is no room for them, or us."
She seemed sad when she said it, and that made Bran sad as well. It was only later that he thought, Men would not be sad. Men would be wroth. Men would hate and swear a bloody vengeance. The singers sing sad songs, where men would fight and kill. (ADWD, Bran III)
So we're told that vengeance and spite aren't really a thing for the CotF, or at least not in the way that they are for humans. I've heard some people suggest that Leaf might be lying here, and that the CotF actually do want vengeance, but I don't think so, for a couple of reasons. First, and this is purely personal preference, I think it's a lot more interesting if the CotF don't think in the same way that humans do. If you're going to have multiple sentient species in your story, and they all think and behave in the same way, then it kind of defeats the purpose of having multiple species in the first place, doesn't it? If the CotF think and act just like humans do, I would personally find that boring. Secondly, and more importantly, we know that the CotF employ at least one human, Bloodraven, as a greenseer. This is a position of importance and confidence in CotF society, and it gives Bloodraven access to immense information. If the CotF were really planning on taking vengeance on humanity, then it's unlikely that they would be able to hide that information from Bloodraven (and any other human greenseers the CotF had; we don't know if Bloodraven was the only one), and it's unlikely that Bloodraven would help the CotF destroy or harm his own species. So the fact that the CotF rely on Bloodraven (and possibly other human greenseers in the past) suggests that the CotF genuinely don't wish any ill will on humanity, just as Leaf said. And if the CotF don't wish any ill will on humanity today, then they also probably didn't wish any ill will on humanity at the time they made the Horn of Winter—that was back when humans still held to the Pact, so the CotF would have had fewer grievances back then than they do today. So, if the CotF wanted to cause a war between the humans and the Others, and their goal wasn't to cause any long-term harm to humanity as a species, then their intent must have been to harm, weaken, or exterminate the Others. The CotF wanted the humans and the Others to go back to war, and they wanted humans to win. This explains why the CotF used to gift obsidian daggers to the Night's Watch.
This raises the question, if the CotF wanted humans to defeat the Others, why didn't they help the humans during the Long Night (at least, prior to the Last Hero's involvement)? Well, once again, we need to consider the psychology of the CotF. We know the CotF are willing to fight incredibly bloody wars, as they did against the First Men, but we also know that they won't keep fighting in a hopeless circumstance simply to spite their enemy, in the way that humans will. In situations where they are faced with assured destruction, they react with sad acceptance, not defiance. The fact that the CotF didn't initially participate in the war against the Others during the Long Night indicates that they must have viewed that war as hopeless. The Others were sweeping south, massacring humans, converting their boys into more Others and raising the rest as wights, constantly growing stronger; the CotF must have concluded that there was nothing they could do, no way to survive the Long Night. They didn't just roll over and die, but they weren't about to fight the Others when they had no chance of success. The CotF most likely hid, guarding themselves with magic, waiting to die a slow death—just like they're doing today.
Fortunately for the CotF, the Long Night did not end in their extinction. As I argued in my second post, Azor Ahai negotiated a peace treaty that ended the Long Night. But, as part of that peace treaty, the Others received a queen, the first female member of their species (whom I've been referring to as the Night's Queen). This allowed the Others to reproduce sexually, as opposed to their earlier method of kidnapping human children, and as a result the Others' population would have begun increasing dramatically following the Long Night. So, on the one hand, the Others were no longer benefitting from the Long Night, meaning they were more vulnerable than they had been prior to the peace treaty. But, at the same time, the Others were growing more powerful, as their population rose. For the first time since the Long Night began, the CotF could now hope for victory in a war with them and the humans on one side and the Others on the other side, but they had a very narrow window in which to act, before the Others became too powerful. That's why they only began making moves against the Others after the Long Night; during the Long Night the Others were too strong to be realistically opposed, and before the Long Night the Others weren't seen as a significant threat. Once the Long Night ended, however, the CotF got to work, by helping to make the Horn of Winter and by providing the Night's Watch with obsidian.

Things change

The above description probably makes it seem like the CotF were motivated to provoke a new war against the Others out of self-preservation, and there may well be some truth in that. The Others, with their new queen, were a rising power, and they still probably harbored a vendetta against the CotF. If the new war against the Others resulted in the Others' extinction, that would obviously guarantee the CotF's safety from them; if the war resulted in the Night's Queen being killed or captured (which I argued is what happened), that would remove the Others' status as a rising power. So, if the CotF were acting out of self-preservation, their plan seems to have been both well motivated and reasonably successful.
But, while the CotF might have successfully averted the risk posed by the Others, they failed to do the same with the humans. Leaf, and presumably the other CotF, fully recognize that humanity's expansion is going to drive them extinct. This has massive implications for the CotF's goals and motivations. The fact that the CotF are aware of and resigned to their inevitable extinction means that self-preservation is no longer a concern for them. They might have been motivated by self-preservation following the end of the Long Night, but not anymore. Whatever the CotF are doing nowadays, they're doing it because there's something they want to accomplish before they vanish as a species. And I do think that the CotF are trying to accomplish something, partly because characters that don't want anything are boring, and partly because Bloodraven is clearly up to something, and the CotF are supporting him. So, if they're not motivated by self-preservation, what are the CotF trying to do?
A common idea I've heard is that Bloodraven and the CotF want to prevent the Others from destroying the world in a second Long Night. I think there's an element of truth to this (especially considering the lengths the CotF have already gone to to oppose the Others), but I don't think it's the whole story. Consider this: if the CotF want to prevent the Others from conquering Westeros, but they're not motivated by self-preservation, then they must be motivated by some combination of altruism and guilt. They created the Others, then the Others got out of hand, to the point where they threatened all of Westeros, and now the CotF feel responsible for making sure they don't do that again. That's reasonable, even noble, but it can't be limited to merely defeating the Others in this latest confrontation. If all that comes of this current conflict with the Others is that the Others are prevented from conquering Westeros, then who's to say that the Others won't try to conquer Westeros a third time in another 8,000 years? And by the time that happens, the CotF will be extinct, so they won't be around to help with that conflict. Simply defeating the Others and thwarting their plans would be a temporary solution to a permanent problem, and, with the CotF facing their own extinction, they would see now as a time for permanent solutions. And when the problem in question is the existence of the Others, there can be only one solution: The CotF want to wipe out the Others completely. I suspect they wanted this ever since the Long Night; they probably see it as cleaning up after their mess. Now, with their extinction looming, that plan to genocide the Others has been made a priority.
I know that my logic has involved jumping around in time a lot, so, as a summary, let me present this handy timeline of the CotF's thoughts on the Others:
I want to comment on an interesting theme here. You may notice a certain paternalism in the CotF's attitudes toward humans. This has already demonstrated in the books:
"Two hundred years?" said Meera.
The child smiled. “Men, they are the children.” (ADWD, Bran II)
It has often been observed that the Others, as an existential threat that can only be dealt with if humanity puts away its petty political squabbles, serve as a metaphor for climate change. In this metaphor, the CotF are the older generations that caused climate change in the first place and now are dying off for unrelated reasons. The CotF's behavior can then be seen as an aspirational model for how older generations should behave with regards climate change. Rather than saying, "Fuck it, I'll be dead, so it's not my problem," they ought to say, "I'm partly responsible for this, so I need to fix it, and the fact that I won't be around that much longer only means I need to work harder to fix it while I still can." Sadly, the CotF only behave the way they do because of their inhuman psychology, which points to the fact that it was never realistic to hope that older generations would behave this way in real life. I doubt this theme is intentional; Martin seems to have originally not seen the Others as a climate change metaphor, although he's since come around to the idea. Still, I think it's a neat connection.

It was Bloodraven all along

If the CotF really want to wipe out the Others, then the current situation at Winterfell must seem perfect for them. I argued in my last post that the events of the series have left Winterfell vulnerable, and the Others are now planning a rescue mission to extract their queen from the Winterfell crypts. With their queen no longer held captive, there will be nothing preventing war between humans and Others (and, after the humans kept the Night's Queen imprisoned for thousands of years, the Others will definitely have cause for war), and this war will happen while the CotF are still around to support the humans. Better still, humanity has dragons again, which will surely be useful against the Others. Everything seems to be going swimmingly for the CotF's plan to provoke a war of extermination against the Others, which raises an obvious question: did the CotF cause the current situation?
To grossly oversimplify a complex series of events, Winterfell's vulnerability can be traced back to two events:
As it happens, there's evidence that Bloodraven played a part in both of these events. First, Bloodraven was probably responsible for sending the direwolves to the Stark children (link to a series of posts by JoeMagician that lays out this argument, among other claims), and these direwolves shaped the events that led to Ned's beheading. Summer killed Bran's assassin before he could murder Bran, but also before he could be interrogated by the Starks; as a result, Catelyn acquired the Valyrian steel dagger, but she didn't know who sent the assassin. Littlefinger took advantage of this to manipulate the Starks. Meanwhile, the Nymeria/Lady incident deepened tensions between the Starks and the Lannisters. I'm not saying that the direwolves exist solely for the purpose of getting Ned's beheaded, but they did contribute to his beheading, by providing Littlefinger with a means of manipulating the Starks and by further souring relations between Ned and Cersei.
More significantly, Bloodraven removed Bran's memory of Jaime pushing him from the tower:
Bran was staring at his arms, his legs. He was so skinny, just skin stretched taut over bones. Had he always been so thin? He tried to remember. A face swam up at him out of the grey mist, shining with light, golden. "The things I do for love," it said.
Bran screamed.
The crow took to the air, cawing. Not that, it shrieked at him. Forget that, you do not need it now, put it aside, put it away. It landed on Bran’s shoulder, and pecked at him, and the shining golden face was gone. (AGOT, Bran III)
If Bran had kept that memory, then he presumably would have woken up and told someone, "Jaime Lannister pushed me out of the tower, after I saw him wrestling naked with Queen Cersei." How exactly this would have changed the events of the book is a matter of fanfic, but, with eye-witness evidence of Jaime and Cersei committing incest and attempted murder, it's very easy to see things going poorly for the Lannisters. Even Cersei recognized how difficult of a situation that would have been to navigate:
If truth be told, Jaime had come to rue heaving Brandon Stark out that window. Cersei had given him no end of grief afterward, when the boy refused to die. "He was seven, Jaime," she’d berated him. "Even if he understood what he saw, we should have been able to frighten him into silence."
"I didn’t think you’d want—"
"You never think. If the boy should wake and tell his father what he saw—"
"If if if." He had pulled her into his lap. “If he wakes we’ll say he was dreaming, we’ll call him a liar, and should worse come to worst I’ll kill Ned Stark."
"And then what do you imagine Robert will do?" (ASOS, Jaime I)
Had Bran kept his memory of Jaime pushing him out of the window, then it likely would have been Cersei and Jaime's downfall, and that means Ned wouldn't have lost his head.
Later, when Theon takes Winterfell, he wakes up suddenly in the middle of the night, and he gets the feeling that someone was responsible for waking him:
One moment he was asleep; the next, awake.
Kyra nestled against him, one arm draped lightly over his, her breasts brushing his back. He could hear her breathing, soft and steady. The sheet was tangled about them. It was the black of night. The bedchamber was dark and still.
What is it? Did I hear something? Someone?
Wind sighed faintly against the shutters. Somewhere, far off, he heard the yowl of a cat in heat. Nothing else. Sleep, Greyjoy, he told himself. The castle is quiet, and you have guards posted. At your door, at the gates, on the armory.
He might have put it down to a bad dream, but he did not remember dreaming. (ACOK, Theon IV)
This was the chapter where Bran and company "escape," and Theon's primary emotions throughout the chapter are anxiety and desperation. Those feelings build over the course of the day, as Theon tries and fails to find Bran and Rickon, eventually consuming him to the point where he does something stupid.
"Joseth has the right of it," said Maester Luwin. "Groping through the woods by torchlight will avail us nothing."
Theon could taste bile at the back of his throat, and his stomach was a nest of snakes twining and snapping at each other. If he crept back to Winterfell empty-handed, he might as well dress in motley henceforth and wear a pointed hat; the whole north would know him for a fool. And when my father hears, and Asha …
"M’lord prince." Reek urged his horse near. (ACOK, Theon IV)
Theon woke up in the middle of the night with a sense that something was off, and then he had plenty of time to stew in his anxiety. Were it not for that, he might not have descended to the point where killing the miller's boys seemed like a good idea. Therefore, the hint that someone was responsible for waking him up is interesting; maybe Bloodraven used his psychic tree powers to wake Theon? The passage mentions the "sigh" of wind—a notably anthropomorphic phrasing—and we know that, when Bran tried to communicate with Ned in the past, it sounded like wind to him; maybe Bloodraven can do something similar, sans time travel? There's nothing explicitly pointing to Bloodraven, but there is evidence that he's messing with Theon's emotions in his next chapter:
The sky was a gloom of cloud, the woods dead and frozen. Roots grabbed at Theon’s feet as he ran, and bare branches lashed his face, leaving thin stripes of blood across his cheeks. He crashed through heedless, breathless, icicles flying to pieces before him. Mercy, he sobbed. From behind came a shuddering howl that curdled his blood. Mercy, mercy. When he glanced back over his shoulder he saw them coming, great wolves the size of horses with the heads of small children. Oh, mercy, mercy. Blood dripped from their mouths black as pitch, burning holes in the snow where it fell. Every stride brought them closer. Theon tried to run faster, but his legs would not obey. The trees all had faces, and they were laughing at him, laughing, and the howl came again. He could smell the hot breath of the beasts behind him, a stink of brimstone and corruption. They’re dead, dead, I saw them killed, he tried to shout, I saw their heads dipped in tar, but when he opened his mouth only a moan emerged, and then something touched him and he whirled, shouting … (ACOK, Theon V)
Theon feels guilty for faking Bran and Rickon's death, and he's afraid for his future; that guilt and fear would have existed in him no matter what, but these dreams amplify those feelings, and the presence of weirwood trees suggests that Bloodraven is actively sending them to Theon. After all, none of Theon's experiences have involved a weirwood in any significant capacity, so this wasn't a native element of his dream, and Bran often has dreams about a weirwood that are implied to be sent by Bloodraven. Theon's fear and his attempts to rationalize his guilt drive him to cling desperately to his power and authority:
"Your prize will be the doom of you. Krakens rise from the sea, Theon, or did you forget that during your years among the wolves? Our strength is in our longships. My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake. You made certain of that when you mounted those heads on your gatehouse." Asha shook her head. "How could you be such a bloody fool? Children …"
"They defied me!" he shouted in her face. "And it was blood for blood besides, two sons of Eddard Stark to pay for Rodrik and Maron." The words tumbled out heedlessly, but Theon knew at once that his father would approve. "I’ve laid my brothers’ ghosts to rest." (ACOK, Theon V)
All of this causes Theon to reject Asha's offer to leave Winterfell for Deepwood Motte, which results in Ramsay sacking Winterfell. So, to summarize, Bloodraven provided the Lannisters with advantages so that they would triumph in their intrigues against Ned, and he psychologically manipulated Theon so that he would lose Winterfell to Ramsay. Bloodraven has actively worked to create the circumstances that have left Winterfell vulnerable, so that the Others will be able to rescue their queen and begin a new war against the humans. I don't want to fall into the trap of claiming that Bloodraven was responsible for everything; I think that most events in the story happened without his direct interference. But, thanks to his greensight giving him glimpses of the future, Bloodraven has found a few places where just a small nudge can result in things going the way he wants them to.
Of course, putting Winterfell in a vulnerable position only matters if the Others know about that vulnerability. Bloodraven must have some communication with the Others. I'm not sure what this communication looks like; if the Others can dream, then it might just mean sending them green dreams prophesying Winterfell's coming vulnerability. Alternatively, Bloodraven might be communicating with them directly by skinchanging into a raven. Maybe he's posing as a human traitor, willing to sell out the humans and the CotF, a kind of second Night's King? This is definitely the biggest missing piece in my theory, but I don't think it's too outlandish to posit Bloodraven has some means of getting information to the Others, and that he's thereby clued the Others in on Winterfell's coming vulnerability.

A politically useful apocalypse

I've talked a lot about the CotF's motivations, but not at all about Bloodraven's, so let's do that now. I'd recommend you read this excellent series of posts on Bloodraven, which I'll be drawing from heavily. Prior to becoming the Last Greenseer, Bloodraven was primarily occupied with the Blackfyres. He played a crucial role in ending the First Blackfyre Rebellion, including but not limited to killing Daemon Blackfyre and his eldest two sons, and since then he went to every effort to foil future Blackfyre attempts to claim the Iron Throne. Some people have speculated that Bloodraven did so out of duty and a desire to keep the realm stable, but this doesn't hold up. Following Maekar I's death, a Great Council was held to determine the succession, and Bloodraven invited and then immediately killed Aenys Blackfyre. Bloodraven later claimed that this was for the good of the realm, but… how? If the Great Council had selected Aenys as the next king, the crown would have passed to him just as peacefully and rightfully as it ended up passing to Aegon V. If Bloodraven was truly motivated by duty and a desire for peace, he would have had no reason to kill Aenys. The only explanation for Bloodraven's actions is that he genuinely did not want a Blackfyre to take the throne, no matter the circumstances surrounding their accession. In fact, his anti-Blackfyre obsession was so intense that he ignored the devastation caused by Dagon Greyjoy, because addressing it would leave the throne vulnerable to the Blackfyres:
"Myself, I blame Bloodraven," Ser Kyle went on. "He is the King's Hand, yet he does nothing, whilst the krakens spread flame and terror up and down the sunset sea."
Ser Maynard gave a shrug. "His eye is fixed on Tyrosh, where Bittersteel sits in exile, plotting with the sons of Daemon Blackfyre. So he keeps the king's ships close at hand, lest they attempt to cross." (The Mystery Knight)
It's important to note that Maynard Plumm was probably a glamored Bloodraven, so this isn't mere speculation; this is Bloodraven telling us his motivation. By all accounts, Bloodraven's tenure as Hand was an awful time for Westeros, where law and order broke down and few people respected the king. The point is, Bloodraven was not a noble man fighting against a beloved brother because it was the right thing to do. Bloodraven was a Targaryen uber-loyalist, who would gladly see the realm burn, so long as a Targaryen remained on the throne. And he appears to have retained that loyalty, decades later. Bloodraven is likely in control of Mormont's raven (see the series of posts I linked earlier), and in raven form Bloodraven hints fairly clearly about wanting Jon to be king:
"Aemon knew, and rightly, that if he remained at court those who disliked his brother’s rule would seek to use him, so he came to the Wall. And here he has remained, while his brother and his brother’s son and his son each reigned and died in turn, until Jaime Lannister put an end to the line of the Dragonkings."
"King," croaked the raven. The bird appeared across the solar to land on Mormont’s shoulder. "King," it said again, strutting back and forth. (ACOK, Jon I)
Something similar happens in ADWD, but what's interesting about this instance of the raven calling Jon king is that it happens immediately after Mormont claims that the Targaryen line has ended. This suggests that this is more than just a prophetic statement of fact; this is a profession of loyalty. Jon is the rightful Targaryen king, and he has Bloodraven's support.
Given his undying Targaryen loyalty, Bloodraven must be psyched about the coming war between the humans and the Others. Daenerys is coming with three dragons, which will be humanity's best hope for defeating the Others; Westeros will naturally rally behind Daenerys, solidifying her rule. Moreover, dragons will be seen as the saviors of Westeros, rather than as dangerous weapons. If Marwyn was right that the maesters killed the dragons, then this would prevent a similar conspiracy from arising and driving the dragons back into extinction, since the dragons would now be seen as necessary for Westeros's security against the forces of evil. So while Bloodraven wants to provoke a war between humans and Others, just like the CotF do, he wants this for a different reason than they do; Bloodraven wants to use the Others to bring about a lasting Targaryen restoration.

Continued in comments

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2023.05.30 17:46 ricka77 Surface moisture?

I have 4 AFs going outside now, recovering from temp issues. They are looking better each day thankfully.
I currently have a clear plastic dome over them, cut in half juice bottle, to help aid in keeping humidity up, as it's not very humid outside here.
The inside of the dome is always fogged over with moisture, and the immediate surface area is also moist. But at times, the surface of soil all around the dome, which is about 6" around the plant dries out. I just watered under the dome a bit, keeping 2" away from the plant.
But should I focus on keeping outside the dome wet as well? I'm also contemplating removing the dome.
All leaves are reaching up for more light, which I believe is a sign of healthy plants... Only one leaf shows a very small/light area of yellowing, but it's not that bad and seems better today than yesterday.
These are at week 4 almost, barely doing much really, but I'm trying
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